The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruptions to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruptions, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms’ near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable.     

Resources for business resilience in a COVID-19 world: A community-centric approach

COVID-19 has drawn renewed focus on the importance of resilience, both among practitioners and in academia, as companies struggle to cope with the rapid swings, changing patterns, and disruptions in supply and demand. This article identifies and delineates a way forward for companies to support resilience, particularly recognizing the wider communities they are nested in and the resources that exist there. To identify such productive resources, known as capitals, we provide a novel and actionable integrated capitals framework (ICF). ICF integrates 10 existing frameworks drawn from both practice and academia and is comprised of nine different forms of capital that businesses can leverage and contribute toward supporting resilience. We provide insights into how businesses can use this framework to achieve resilience through this useful, yet underutilized, path.     

战略与复杂双重维度下商业生态系统形成机理研究

基于战略和复杂双重维度，剖析阿里巴巴商业生态系统形成逻辑。结果发现：较强的战略控制力有利于强化平台商业模式，催生跨行业多样化平台，继而推进生态内信息化不断深入发展；随后，商业生态系统积蓄丰富的共享数据资源，打开资源交易和创造边界，提升生态主体能力的同时重塑生态系统属性；有着更强复杂应配力的生态主体不断探索商业模式创新，生态内外的创新扩散催化商业生态系统竞争，进一步强化复杂应配力。在核心企业战略控制力和生态主体复杂应配力的双重作用下，商业生态系统呈现前生态状态、生态内卷、生态扩散和生态共生4种不同状态。     

技术创业型企业孵化资本投入的风险管控——来自多案例对比

待孵化的技术创业型企业同时具有概念性技术向差异化产品转化的高风险与产品异质性被认同后溢价评估的高收益特点，导致其投资者多处于隔岸观火却欲罢不能的的孵化投资矛盾中。对孵化资本实施有效的风险管控，成为吸引外部资本投入的关键。基于此，选择在可创概念选育与技术创业孵化领域探索出高成功率路径的概念证明中心、YCombinator和创新工场为研究案例，分析其在创业项目筛选、孵化资金运营等关键环节的风险管控方式，以期完善我国孵化资本管控理论、助力我国商业孵化器提高资金风险管控能力、促进外部资本投入。     

Why and when organizational culture fosters affective commitment among knowledge workers: the mediating role of perceived psychological contract fulfilment and moderating role of organizational tenure

Drawing on Denison and Mishra (1995)’s framework of organizational culture, this study examines why and when organizational culture is related to knowledge workers’ affective commitment. Data were collected from 640 employees working in three high-technology companies in China. The findings indicate that the relationship between organizational culture and affective commitment is mediated by perceived psychological contract fulfilment. In addition, organizational tenure moderates the relationship between two external dimensions (i.e. adaptability and mission) of organizational culture and perceived psychological contract fulfilment. This study extends the current theoretical framework of organizational culture by demonstrating the underlying mechanism and the boundary condition of the relationship between organizational culture and affective commitment. The findings also provide practical implications for international managers to design appropriate human resource management policies and practices in China.     

Transforming under deep uncertainty: A strategic perspective on risk management

Companies increasingly face the need for transformation in today’s rapidly changing business environment, characterized by major shifts in technology, regulation, and customer behavior. A lack of strategic risk insight and foresight leaves many incumbents insufficiently prepared in the face of such deep uncertainty. We argue that traditional risk management falls short because it predominantly focuses on strategy execution while leaving strategy formulation largely untouched. Moreover, an administrative-heavy risk management process can create strategic inertia and a misleading sense of control. In today’s dynamic business context, companies must not only increase the speed and impact of their strategy execution but also continuously explore the development of new strategies in response to disruptive events or emerging opportunities. Our research shows how leading companies develop a strategic risk management (SRM) capability to increase their resilience and agility in response to deep uncertainty. SRM takes a strategic, forward-looking perspective and focuses on strengthening processes, people, and practices for purposefully integrating risk into the strategy formulation process. This article offers a framework with three proven configurations of content and timing integration, risk management roles, and leading practices that enable effective SRM.     

Frustration-driven process improvement

When employees are empowered to continuously record their employment-related frustrations—doing so on accessible, visually prominent media—process improvement becomes upgraded to operate in a truly continuous mode. Frustrations are a superior target of process improvement in that they get at deep-seated concerns of people who have first-order process awareness and are most directly impacted by process failings. Recording frustrations not only provides a sound basis for pressing on to solutions, but it is also cathartic. The act of recording frustrations prominently on company-sanctioned media provides a positive outlet for the frustrations themselves.     

我国公民水素养评价指标体系的构建

为准确描述我国公民水素养水平,有针对性地加强水资源宣传教育,提高公民水素养,在科学素养、环境素养的研究基础上,设计包含有水知识、水态度、水行为3个一级指标、10个二级指标、29个三级指标的公民水素养多层级评价指标体系,运用层次分析法和李克特量表分别确立各级指标权重和设计调查问卷,并以北京市为例对公民水素养评价指标体系进行通用性分析。结果表明,水知识、水态度、水行为在水素养评价中各自的权重为9.14%、21.76%和69.10%;水知识、水态度得分相对较高,而水行为得分则相对较低,表明以水行为核心的水素养提升任务任重而道远。     

Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition

This paper analyses changes in economic regional interlinkages in Europe over time and investigates the factors that could explain the dynamics of these changes. Our four main findings are the following: (i) we detect a significant surge in regional synchronisation after the Great Recession; (ii) we identify the regions most interrelated with the rest of Europe, namely, Ile de France, Inner London and Lombardia; (iii) we find that sectoral composition explains regional synchronisation in Europe, mainly after the Great Recession and (iv) we document that sectoral composition has important implications for aggregate economic fluctuations, in particular, that similarities in services-related sectors across regions explain a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional business cycle synchronisation. We also propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronisation in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging.